The decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to invalidate tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump has given China a temporary respite, although Trump announced that he would immediately impose a 10% tariff on all countries – later increased to 15%, the maximum allowed under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, and limited to 150 days.
China’s sprawling export sector is eyeing a brief window of opportunity to front-load shipments to the United States, even as industry insiders remain wary of potential shocks ahead. All eyes are now on the coming Beijing summit, where U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet President Xi Jinping in a visit that could prove decisive for the future of bilateral trade, analysts and exporters said. The White House has announced that President Trump will travel to China from March 31 to April 2, his first trip to the country since returning to power in early 2025.
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports comprised five layers – 2.5% most-favored-nation tariffs, 8.4% Section 301 tariffs, 11% Section 232 tariffs, 10% fentanyl tariffs, and 5.1% “reciprocal” tariffs – totaling 37%, according to calculations by Guosheng Securities. The Supreme Court ruling invalidates the fentanyl tariffs and the “reciprocal” tariffs on China, cutting the baseline rate to 21.9%. But the addition of the new 15% “global tariff” again pushes up the composite rate to about 28.6%, Guosheng Securities noted..
Analysts also cautioned that longer-lasting, potentially higher tariffs could still be imposed under Section 301 – used to address trade practices deemed unfair – or Section 232, which invokes national security concerns. China’s “small parcel” e-commerce exporters did not stand to benefit from the Supreme Court ruling, as the suspension of the duty-free de minimis exemption for low-value shipments remains in place. Chinese exporters are already ramping up production to front-load goods exports to the U.S. China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said it was conducting a comprehensive assessment of the implications of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling. “We have also noted that the U.S. side is preparing alternative measures, such as trade investigations, in an effort to maintain tariffs imposed on trading partners. China will closely monitor this and firmly safeguard its own interests,” the Ministry said. Mainland China and Hong Kong stand to benefit the most among Asian economies from the effective decline in U.S. tariffs, as the 10% fentanyl tariff had been applied universally to all exports. By contrast, the new tariff does not apply to “critical goods” sectors, such as critical minerals and pharmaceuticals, according to Goldman Sachs, as reported by the South China Morning Post.
The Global Times adds that a Spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce said that China has consistently opposed all forms of unilateral tariff measures and urges the U.S. side to cancel and refrain from imposing any such unilateral tariffs, noting that practice has repeatedly proven that cooperation between China and the U.S. benefits both sides, while confrontation harms both.
