World output growth is projected to decelerate from an estimated 3.0% in 2022 to 1.9% in 2023, while China's economic growth is forecast to accelerate to 4.8% this year, according to the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023 report. Amid high inflation, aggressive monetary tightening and heightened uncertainties, the current global downturn has slowed the pace of economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis, threatening several countries – both developed and developing – with the prospects of recession in 2023, according to the report. The U.S. GDP is expected to expand only 0.4% in 2023, after an estimated growth of 1.8% in 2022, while growth in China is projected to moderately improve in 2023.
In addition to the UN, a number of global institutions also raised their China growth forecasts as the country's economic activity quickly rebounded in the new year from the severe epidemic situation in the last month of 2022. According to the latest World Bank report, China's economy will grow by 4.3% in 2023, compared with the 2.7% of its previous estimate for China. “If the impact of widespread infections nationwide on GDP growth is limited in the first quarter, it is possible that 2023 growth could reach 6%,” G. Bin Zhao, Senior Economist at PwC China, said. “After China's adjustment and optimization of its epidemic prevention policy, its economic activity gradually recovered. I have full confidence in national economic development in 2023, with the current forecast of economic growth reaching 5%,” He Weiwen, Senior Fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, told the Global Times, adding that expanding consumption is the top priority this year.
Trip.com said that in the first four days of the Chinese New Year, bookings for hotels, B&Bs and tickets have surpassed the same period in 2019. Outbound flight bookings by Chinese tourists increased more than four times year-on-year, with Hong Kong and Macao among the top two popular destinations. The Maldives has welcomed the first flight of Chinese tourists since the pandemic began. Economist Tian Yun expects China's consumption in the first two months to probably rebound to about 5% growth year-on-year, the Global Times reports.
At least eight provincial-level regions in China saw their total GDP exceed CNY5 trillion in 2022, with both Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces reaching over CNY12 trillion. The figures show potential for growth, analysts said. Guangdong’s total GDP is the largest for the 34th consecutive year at over CNY12.9 trillion in 2022, up by 1.9% year-on-year. Jiangsu had the nation’s second- highest total GDP, reaching CNY12.29 trillion in 2022, accounting for about 10.2% of China’s overall economy. When it comes to the growth rate, Fujian and Jiangxi provinces tied for first place, both reaching 4.7% year-on-year. Ten provincial-level regions saw growth of more than 4% last year – Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Gansu, Shanxi, Hubei, Shaanxi and Yunnan provinces, and the Inner Mongolia and Ningxia Hui autonomous regions, the China Daily adds.
