German exports to China fell year-on-year in the first half of 2026, pointing to a deeper restructuring of bilateral trade as China moves up the manufacturing value chain, Chinese analysts said. They also cautioned that the decline should not be read as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, given the deep economic ties and the continued benefits of cooperation for both sides. Germany's first-half exports to China fell by more than 12% year-on-year to just under €37 billion, while imports from China rose 8.9% to €91.8 billion, according to Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI). Germany's trade deficit with China widened to about €55 billion euros from €40 billion a year earlier. Corinne Abele, GTAI's East Asia Expert, pointed to weaker domestic demand and the fact that German companies are increasingly producing inside China. Commerzbank Economist Vincent Stamer said that China's diminishing reliance on Germany showed that the country is becoming more independent of Western powers and catching up technologically.
China has continued to strengthen its capabilities in sectors including new-energy vehicles (NEVs), artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced manufacturing, enabling more products and technologies that previously depended on imports to be supplied domestically, Zhao Junjie, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times. “This means the structure of China-Germany trade is changing,” Zhao said, noting that as Chinese industries move up the value chain, China's reliance on some German industrial products is declining, while Chinese companies are becoming more competitive in sectors where German manufacturers traditionally enjoyed strong advantages.
The changing trade trend is also linked to Germany's own industrial competitiveness and policy environment, Zhao said, noting that high energy costs, demographic pressures and slower investment in some emerging technologies have weighed on the country's industrial upgrading and innovation. At the same time, political and security considerations have increasingly shaped Germany's economic policy toward China, as Berlin has moved closer to the broader U.S. and EU "de-risking" agenda, Zhao said. “Such policies can be a double-edged sword, raising costs for German companies in China and disrupting bilateral economic cooperation while seeking to pressure Chinese industries.” However, it is notable that overall China-Germany trade remained substantial. Total bilateral trade exceeded €128 billion in the first half, about €3 billion more than Germany's trade with the U.S. China overtook the U.S. as Germany's top trading partner in 2025 after U.S. President Donald Trump launched sweeping protectionist tariffs that weighed on German exports to the U.S., the Global Times reports.
