CSIA Chairman expects explosive semiconductor growth in 3 to 5 years

Chen Nanxiang, Chairman of the China Semiconductor Industry Association (CSIA) and CEO of China’s top memory chip maker Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation (YMTC) was quoted by Chinese state television as saying that China will see “explosive growth” in semiconductors in the next three to five years on the back of advantages in applications and packaging technologies. “Today’s focus is on innovation in industry, products, services, and business models, which ultimately will have to bring value,” Chen said in his interview with CGTN, the English channel of China Central Television (CCTV). “The chip industry in China has not yet reached explosive growth, but that day will come over the next three to five years.”

Semiconductors have been at the center of the U.S.-China tech war, which has helped fuel the domestic industry’s development, according to Chen. While the U.S. is trying to deprive China’s access to advanced chips and foundry technologies, Chen noted that advanced packaging could play an important role in the future. “For example, the hottest AI chips are in need of state-of-the-art foundry and packaging technologies,” he said. “It can be predicted that, in the very near future, the importance of packaging technology may exceed the importance of foundry technology.” Chen noted that there is a lack of consensus in chip development, highlighting the differences in Samsung Electronics’ 3-nanometer process compared with Intel’s. He also suggested he is pinning his hope for the domestic industry on specialized chips for specific applications.

U.S. sanctions on China’s top technology companies and semiconductor foundries, including YMTC, have prompted industry players to form closer ties and rally behind state support to find a way forward. Chen has called for industry unity in the face of U.S. tech sanctions after being elected head of the CSIA last October. In June 2023, the YMTC Chairman suggested that any tool maker unable to deliver or service their equipment should buy it back from customers. Chen said after making many mistakes in the past, China’s policymakers and industry players are still in search of the best way forward. A long period of trial and error has taught everyone which models are doomed to fail, he added.

Technological progress at YMTC and other Chinese foundries such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) is being closely monitored, as the U.S. has continued to periodically escalate sanctions targeting the industry. Chen stopped short of providing a clear answer to the question of whether China could completely catch up with the U.S. in chip making. He suggested that a slowing of “Moore’s Law” is beneficial for China because it helps fuel innovation in other technologies such as advanced packaging, the South China Morning Post reports.

It was also reported that Chinese scientists have produced an ultra thin semiconductor material that could lead to the creation of faster and more energy-efficient microchips. The scientists explored two-dimensional (2D) transition-metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) as an alternative to silicon, with a thickness of just 0.7 nanometers compared to silicon’s typical 5-10 nm. TMDs also consume less power and have superior electron transport properties, making them ideal for ultra-scaled-down transistors. Producing TMDs has been challenging, but now the scientists have found a way to make mass production feasible.

Meanwhile, Nvidia is reported to be working on a new version of its AI chip, codenamed B20, which could be exported to China to try to protect its market share in China. Shipments are planned to start in the second quarter of 2025.