More than 90% of Beijing’s 22 million citizens will have been infected with the coronavirus by January 31, according to an estimate by researchers from Hong Kong University (HKU). About 76% of people in Beijing had contracted Covid-19 as of December 22 and it was expected to reach 92% by January 31. The HKU study was published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Medicine on January 13. The researchers tracked the reproduction rate of the Omicron variant BF.7 in Beijing in November and December, after China first eased and then abruptly abandoned its zero-Covid strategy that had been in place for nearly three years. The authorities released 20 measures on November 11 to optimize pandemic control, including restricting the scope of testing, reducing the quarantine period for inbound travelers, and simplifying risk classifications from three levels to two. On December 7, mass testing, lockdowns and centralized quarantine were scrapped, with people who have no or mild symptoms allowed to isolate at home.
There was a surge in cases across the country after the policy changes. The study estimates that the reproduction rate jumped from 1.04 on November 11 to 3.44 a week later – meaning that one person with the virus could infect 3.44 others. The authors said that since regular mass testing was suspended in late November, it was difficult to assess the transmission dynamics based on the daily infections reported by health authorities. Instead, they used a transmission model with real-time mobility statistics collected from Beijing’s subway system as well as online survey data. They estimated that on November 30, when regular mass testing was suspended, the daily case number in Beijing was about 94,000. Their modeling showed an estimated peak of 1.03 million daily cases on December 11. Other big cities in mainland China are likely to mirror the situation in Beijing, according to the researchers.
The HKU estimate for Beijing is in line with previous projections. Zeng Guang, former Chief Scientist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told a virtual forum on December 27 that more than 80% of people in Beijing had likely been infected with Covid-19. “The first wave usually infects 30% of the population, but the infection rate of Covid-19 is rising faster than expected,” Zeng said. Visits to fever clinics nationwide reached a peak of 2.87 million on December 23, 2022 and dropped to 63,000 on January 23, according to the latest report from China’s CDC. Visits to fever clinics in rural areas reached a peak on December 23, 2022 at 922,000, declining 94.6% from their peak to 50,000 on January 23.
The number of positive cases reached 6.94 million on December 22 and then gradually decreased to 15,000. The positive test rate reached its peak on Dec 25 at 29.2% and then gradually declined, dropping to 5.5% on January 23. The number of deaths from Covid-19 infections in hospitals nationwide reached a daily peak of 4,273 on January 4 and then declined, falling to 896 on January 22, a drop of 79% from the peak, according to the China CDC. The number of patients hospitalized for Covid-19 nationwide reached a peak of 1.63 million on January 5 and then began to decline, falling to 248,000 on January 23. A Peking University study estimated some 900 million people had been infected with the virus up to January 11 – or 64% of the population – but reports on the study were taken down from Chinese websites.
China's National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has granted conditional approval to two homegrown Covid-19 oral pills. One of the newly approved medicines, Xiannuoxin, was jointly developed by Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, headquartered in Nanjing (Jiangsu province), the Shanghai Institute of Materia Medica, the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS). The new drug is a combination of simnotrelvir, a novel drug aimed at inhibiting the virus’s replication, and a low dose of ritonavir, an antiretroviral medication already available on the market that can boost simnotrelvir’s antiviral efficacy. The other new drug, VV116, was jointly developed by Shanghai Vinnerna Biosciences and other research institutes in Shanghai. The two oral pills will be used for mild and moderate Covid-19 adult patients. As of January 19, 10 domestically made Covid-19 drugs had either been granted official or conditional market approval or had been authorized to treat viral symptoms, according to the State Council’s Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism.
This overview is based on reports by the China Daily, Shanghai Daily, Global Times and South China Morning Post.
