China's economy posted a solid 5.3% growth in the first half of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), demonstrating its strong resilience despite a complex global environment. In the second quarter alone, the economy expanded by 5.2% compared with the same period last year, easing slightly from the 5.4% growth recorded in the first quarter. Production and demand grew steadily, employment was generally stable, household income continued to increase, new growth drivers showed robust development and high-quality development made new strides, helping ensure overall social stability, according the NBS. Generally speaking, with the more proactive and effective macro policies taking effect in the first half of the year, the national economy maintained steady growth with good momentum, showcasing strong resilience and vitality, said Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the NBS.
The steady 5.3% growth achieved in the first half of 2025 keeps China well on course to meet its full-year target of about 5% growth, an analyst said. This performance also serves as a direct rebuttal to pessimistic narratives by some foreign media outlets, reaffirming the strength and resilience of the Chinese economy. With GDP growth projected to outpace most major economies in 2025, China is set to reinforce its position as both a driver of global growth and a source of stability amid international uncertainties, the analyst said.
China's foreign trade of goods rose 2.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 to reach USD3.04 trillion. Foreign trade growth in the second quarter rose significantly by 4.5% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points higher than in the first quarter, marking the ninth quarter in which foreign trade has exceeded CNY10 trillion. Foreign trade in yuan-denominated terms stood at CNY21.79 trillion. During the first six months of 2025, China's exports rose 7.2% year-on-year to reach CNY13 trillion, setting a new record, while imports fell 2.7% to reach CNY8.79 trillion. China-U.S. trade shifted from year-on-year growth in the first quarter to a decline in the second quarter, with a significant drop of 20.8%. In the first half of the year, China's total trade with the U.S. reached CNY2.08 trillion, a year-on-year decline of 9.3%.
Retail sales of consumer goods grew 5% year-on-year to CNY24.54 trillion in the first half of the year, while the value added of large industrial enterprises was up 6.4%, and fixed-asset investment (FAI) climbed by 2.8%, according to the NBS. In the first half of the year, the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, 0.1 percentage points lower compared to the first quarter. Manufacturing continued to serve as a key driver of economic growth, supported in part by steady external demand. The momentum from new quality productive forces became increasingly evident. In the first six months, China's total merchandise trade rose 2.9% year-on-year to USD3.04 trillion. Foreign-funded enterprises operating in China saw their import and export volume reach CNY6.32 trillion in the first half of this year, up 2.4% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of foreign trade growth.
Major global banks and institutions raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth this year following the country’s stronger-than-expected first-half performance. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, UBS and Nomura, all upgraded their full-year GDP growth estimates for China. Morgan Stanley recently raised its forecast for China’s 2025 GDP growth from 4.5% to 4.8%, while Goldman Sachs lifted its outlook to 4.7% from the previous 4.6%. Despite the positive figures, economists warned that the Chinese economy still faces pressures from lackluster domestic demand, a sluggish property sector, and mounting external uncertainties. These challenges, they said, underscore the need for additional measures to stimulate consumption and advance structural reforms to sustain the recovery, the China Daily and the Global Times report.
