China's GDP expanded 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of the year, beating economists' forecast of 4.4% year-on-year, as the economy sustained its recovery momentum thanks to the rollout of macro-policies to bolster the economy on all fronts since July. GDP expanded by 5.2% in the first three quarters to reach CNY91.3 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). “Though it's slightly slower than the second-quarter GDP growth rate of 6.3% year-on-year, I would still give a thumb-up for China's economy. The result is hard-won amid a more complex and grave external environment and some domestic challenges, underscoring that macro-policies are producing effects and positive factors are amassing,” Cao Heping, Economist at Peking University, told the Global Times. There were multiple highlights contributing to China's economic recovery in the third quarter, including continuous release of domestic demand, stable growth of foreign trade and industrial output, Cong Yi, Professor at the Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, said.
The total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 4.0% year-on-year in the first three quarters. The country's fixed-asset investment (FAI) grew steadily by 3.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Looking ahead, China's economy will further recover in the fourth quarter of 2023, traditionally a consumption peak, contributing to the achievement of its annual growth target of around 5% this year, Cao said. “Despite rising external headwinds including a volatile international environment and growing trade protectionism, there is no need to worry about the Chinese economy,” Cong said, noting that the country needs to maintain strategic focus to achieve high-quality development.
In the fourth quarter, more efforts are needed to continue to maintain consumers' enthusiasm for consumption and implement key projects listed in the country's 14th Five Year Plan (2021-25) as soon as possible to stabilize the country's investment, Tian Yun, a Beijing-based economist, told the Global Times. China has full confidence in achieving its stated annual GDP growth target of around 5% in 2023, with economic growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters setting a solid foundation.
The South China Morning Posts adds however that real estate investment dropped by 9.1% in the first three quarters compared with a year earlier. China’s retail sales grew by 5.5% in September, compared with 4.6% growth in August. China only needs to realize year-on-year GDP growth of 4.4% in the fourth quarter to achieve leadership’s full-year target of “around 5%” growth.
