The General Administration of Customs (GAC) announced that China’s trade in goods expanded 16.9% year-on-year to CNY25.47 trillion in the first half, with imports growing faster than exports. Exports rose 13.4%, while imports climbed 22.1%, exceeding export growth by 8.7 percentage points. GAC Vice Minister Wang Jun acknowledged that China’s foreign trade will face certain headwinds in the second half, but said innovative products and continued opening-up will remain key pillars supporting its solid fundamentals. “Stronger import growth, together with robust exports of higher-value manufactured goods, reflects a healthier and more balanced trade structure,” he said, adding that the trend shows that China is contributing to global growth not only through its manufacturing strength, but also through its expanding domestic market, helping stabilize global industrial and supply chains. Alongside notable export growth in tech-intensive green products such as energy storage systems and electric trucks, China’s trade in hardware that supports computing power, including electronic components and computer parts, surged 56.6% year-on-year to CNY5.13 trillion in the first half.
China’s artificial intelligence-powered smart glasses, translation devices and robotic exoskeletons are among a growing range of intelligent products undergoing rapid innovation, Wang added. Wen Bin, Chief Economist at China Minsheng Bank, said that China’s exports are likely to remain resilient in the second half, supported by the ongoing AI investment cycle, the United States’ relatively moderate tariff policy, and a range of supportive measures aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers. However, Wen cautioned that risks remain, including potential disruptions to energy supply chains in the Gulf region and renewed trade friction between China and the European Union. But China’s integrated industrial base helped fill supply gaps. Its exports of basic organic chemicals and primary plastics rose, supporting global manufacturing activity and supply chain stability, according to the GAC.
Foreign-invested businesses in China generated CNY7.39 trillion in imports and exports in the first half, up 17.1% year-on-year, marking a ninth consecutive quarter of growth, Customs data showed.
Meanwhile, the European Union is prepared to introduce emergency measures to combat China’s extraordinary export surge as new figures showed the trade gap had widened dramatically. Safeguard measures that permit tariffs and quotas to be enforced to combat sudden import surges may “become legitimate on a case-by-case basis”, Denis Redonnet, EU Deputy Director General for Trade told the European Parliament’s Trade Committee. “Structural rebalancing will not take place before October, what can we do before that October deadline? We’ll look at a number of sectors, try to start rebalancing, try to rein in the export levels,” Redonnet said. “It may be that we are also in situations because of import surges where contingency trade protection-type tools like safeguards become legitimate and necessary on a case-by-case basis.” In the first half of the year China’s trade surplus with the EU grew by 23.7% in U.S. dollar-denominated value terms. For Germany, the surplus expanded by 80.8%, as Chancellor Friedrich Merz repeated that the yuan was artificially devalued. “We are now trying to steer the dialogue with China to persuade China to allow its own currency to float freely, including in the context of competition in the capital markets,” Merz said.
The EU expected China’s share of global manufacturing to rise from 37% today to up to 45% by 2030, Redonnet added, describing it as “a significant increase in what is becoming a form of industrial dominance”. The next few months are likely to see extensive talks between the two sides, but the EU is also likely to unveil further protective measures. Redonnet confirmed he would talk to Chinese Commerce Vice Minister Ling Ji in August and visit China in September, the China Daily and South China Morning Post report.
