China’s massive export machine could be looking at its “final hurrah” in March, analysts said, as shipments surged in advance of tariff increases from the United States as well as countermeasures Beijing pledged to “strictly enforce”. Outbound merchandise shipments rose by 12.4% from a year earlier to USD313.9 billion, compared to the 2.3% growth recorded for January and February and the 3.53% rise forecast in a poll from financial data provider Wind. “But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, adding “it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.” Imports sank by 4.3% year-on-year in March after a 8.4% slide in the first two months of the year, according to Customs data, leading to a trade surplus of USD102.64 billion for March.
Global trade is likely to face stormier seas in the coming months, as drastic tariff increases from U.S. President Donald Trump effectively paralyze activity as buyers and sellers try to make sense of the changes and hold back on orders until the situation reaches some degree of predictability. Nowhere is the landscape more blurry than China, with Trump having threatened new cumulative tariffs of 145% on all Chinese goods over several escalatory rounds, making it commercially impossible for many Chinese firms to sell to the American market. This would have sent the effective tariff rate, factoring in those already in place, close to 156%. In March, China’s exports to the United States increased by 9.09% year-on-year, compared to the 2.3% growth observed in the first two months of 2025. The external environment remains “complex and challenging”, said General Administration of Customs (GAC) Spokesman Lu Daliang at a press conference, but “the sky won’t fall” as far as the country’s trade and economy are concerned. “We have a vast domestic market that serves as a strong strategic backup. By staying focused on our own development, we aim to provide stability amid global uncertainty.”
Southeast Asia – where Chinese exporters had been re-routing their goods to bypass U.S. trade barriers is also nervous over the prospect of crippling tariffs, despite a 90-day pause on duties above a universal 10% baseline. Shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – China’s largest trading partner – rose by 11.55%. Exports to Thailand and Vietnam increased by 27.78% and 18.91% year-on-year respectively in March. Economists pointed out the data reflected a spike in transshipments via Southeast Asia to circumvent tariffs, with other forms of irregular trade continuing to surge as suppliers experiment with alternative routes to determine their next steps. Exports to the European Union also increased by 10.29% year-on-year in March. Beijing has responded with a cumulative 125% tariff on all U.S. imports, on top of earlier levies. It also imposed export controls on 28 U.S. companies and added 17 American firms to its list of “unreliable entities”. Additionally, the country has tightened export controls on U.S.-bound shipments of several rare earth materials – essential for the production of hi-tech goods, the Global Times reports.
