Chinese and U.S. economists expressed full confidence in China's economic recovery this year at a forum in Beijing, but they remain cautious over the long-term picture, suggesting that striving for long-term stable growth should be the focus of future economic work. China's economic growth will be strong this year and easily exceed the 5% goal set by the government, or even exceed 6%, Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said at the Tsinghua PBCSF Chief Economists Forum. Still, the U.S. economist, who has long followed China's economy, remains cautious over growth prospects beyond this year. The long-term trend is different from the strong and continued growth in the past 45 years, said Roach, adding that his concern is about structural challenges and potential GDP growth.
China's working-age population peaked in 2010, meaning China should increase total factor productivity to continue its strong economic growth of the past 45 years, according to Roach. Maintaining long-term stable growth is a core issue for the future of China, Li Daokui, Director of the Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking at Tsinghua University, told the forum, which was held under the theme "2023 Global Financial Turbulence and Economic Outlook." Striving for stable growth should be the normal in future economic work, Li said. In order to achieve the goal of achieving modernization by 2035, China should secure an average annual economic growth of 4.6%, but based on current trends, China's economic growth rate will fall below 4.6% within three years, he said. China should offer subsidies to consumers in the short term, cultivating new-type markets – the carbon market, promoting local government fiscal restructuring, and establishing a flexible retirement system, Li suggested.
The combination of supply-side structural reform and expansion of domestic demand will release reform dividends, according to Huang Qifan, former Mayor of Chongqing. China's economic recovery has entered a new phase, requiring new policies. China's macro-economic policy needs to focus on the medium-term, Liu Yuanchun, President of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the forum on May 6, the Global Times reports.
