China needs to chart a new course to become the world’s largest importer, argues Wang Xiangwei, former Editor-in-Chief of the South China Morning Post. In 2009, China surpassed Germany to become the world’s largest exporter of goods, a position it has maintained for the past 16 years. This export dominance has been instrumental in propelling China’s economy forward, enabling it to overtake Japan in 2010 as the second-largest economy in nominal GDP, trailing only the United States. By 2013, China had also eclipsed the U.S. as the world’s largest trading nation in goods, measured by the combined value of imports and exports. These milestones underscore its remarkable transformation from an inward-focused economy to a global powerhouse. Now, as China’s leadership prepares to meet from October 20 to 23 to deliberate on the 15th Five Year Plan, it is imperative to chart a new course: overtaking the U.S. to become the world’s largest importer within the next five to 10 years, according to Wang.
This shift would not only mark a pivotal evolution in China’s economic strategy, it would also carry profound geopolitical and economic implications for the nation, its key trading partners and the rest of the world. The Five Year Plan has evolved far beyond its original rigid production targets and ideological framework. Today, it serves as a comprehensive blueprint encompassing economic development, environmental protection, education and social welfare programs. The upcoming plan is particularly critical as China aims to achieve its goal of becoming a “modern socialist country”. Central to this ambition is accelerating the transition to a consumption-driven economy, addressing structural imbalances which emerged due to prioritizing investment and exports over domestic demand.
During the past four decades of “reform and opening up”, China’s growth has relied heavily on fixed-asset investments in infrastructure and real estate and on exports. These engines have fueled unprecedented expansion, but their sustainability has waned in recent years. A stark illustration of this imbalance is China’s steel sector, where production exceeded 1 billion tons in 2024, with exports reaching around 110 million tons. Such overproduction exemplifies the cutthroat “involution-style” competition plaguing many industries – excessive price wars driven by oversupply and weak domestic demand, resulting in razor-thin margins or losses.
Meanwhile, China’s imports grew modestly by 2.3% to about USD2.6 trillion in 2024, compared to U.S. imports of goods and services, which rose 6.6% to a record USD4.1 trillion. At first glance, bridging this gap to surpass the U.S. as the top importer might seem daunting, but it aligns perfectly with China’s pressing need to rebalance its economy. Opening up areas such as education, healthcare, sports and elderly care to foreign investment and services could invigorate these industries. The geopolitical significance of China becoming the largest importer cannot be overstated. Boosting imports would signal China’s commitment to balanced global trade, Wang concludes.
