Major Chinese new-energy vehicle (NEV) companies have announced sales targets for 2024, with many planning to increase or even double sales compared with 2023. Experts see sustained momentum from 2023, when Chinese NEVs broke export records. Li Auto has set a 2024 sales target of 800,000 vehicles, up 112.77% from 2023. Leapmotor has set a target of 300,000 to 400,000 units, more than double the 2023 level. NETA Auto plans to sell 300,000 vehicles, with a domestic target of 200,000 and an overseas target of 100,000 vehicles. Zeekr has set a sales target of 230,000 vehicles for 2024, double the sales in 2023.
China's NEV sector is maintaining high-speed growth. BYD said in a filing that it estimates net profit of CNY29 billion to CNY31 billion for 2023, with growth of up to 86%. In 2023, BYD's total sales reached 3.0244 million units, making it a global leader in NEV sales and setting a new record for the highest annual sales in the Chinese automotive industry.
Export prospects for 2024 are highly optimistic. In 2023 China overtook Japan to become the largest vehicle exporting country. The international market has a strong demand for new-energy products, with many countries setting carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets, providing opportunities for China's NEV exports, Zhang Xiang, Director of the Digital Automotive International Cooperation Research Center of World Digital Economy Forum, told the Global Times. “China's dominance in the global new-energy industry chain, coupled with its low costs and high cost-effectiveness, gives its NEVs a competitive edge in overseas markets,” Zhang said. In 2023, China's exports of NEVs reached a record of 1.203 million, with year-on-year growth of 77.2%. NEV production and sales accounted for more than 60% of the global market share, maintaining China's position as the world's top producer for a ninth consecutive year, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
China's vehicle industry reported record production and sales in 2023. Car output exceeded 30.16 million units, up 11.6% year-on-year, and sales exceeded 30.09 million units, up 12%, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Both the output and sales hit record highs. Exports reached 4.91 million, up 58% year-on-year, the CAAM's data showed. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), told the Global Times that going overseas would be the “next explosive point” in China's vehicle industry in the next 10 years.
But according to the South China Morning Post the year 2024 got off to a bumpy start for Chinese EV producers, after car deliveries dropped sharply amid mounting concerns about a slowing economy and job losses. Beijing-based Li Auto handed 31,165 vehicles to buyers last month, down 38.1% from an all-time high of 50,353 units it recorded in December. The decline also ended nine months of sales records. Guangzhou-headquartered Xpeng reported deliveries of 8,250 cars in January, down 59% from the previous month. It broke its own monthly delivery record for three months between October and December. Nio in Shanghai said its deliveries in January plunged 44.2% from December to 10,055 units. “The month-on-month fall in deliveries appears to be bigger than what dealers had expected,” said Zhao Zhen, Sales Director with Shanghai-based dealer Wan Zhuo Auto. EV sales in China could slow by 20% this year, according to a forecast by Fitch Ratings in November.
