China’s domestically produced passenger plane, the C919, has completed a year of commercial flights, so far on domestic routes with domestic carriers. International certification is the next step, but sanctions could lengthen or stall the process.
The C919 made its first commercial flight between Shanghai and Beijing on May 28, 2023. The single-aisle C919, 15 years in the making, can carry between 158 and 192 passengers for trips of up to 5,555 km. It is competing with Boeing's 737 and Airbus' A320. The C919’s engine, landing gear and avionics are sourced from Western suppliers, including GE and Honeywell of the U.S. and France’s Safran, but the manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) is looking to swap them for indigenous alternatives in a long, arduous process of intensive research and development (R&D). Aero Engine Corporation of China is positioning its CJ-1000 engine as a future replacement for the LEAP-1C, which Comac currently procures from CFM, a GE-Safran joint venture.
After a year of regular commercial flights, the plane has burnished China’s credentials as a global player in aviation manufacturing, a position befitting its status as the world’s second-largest market for air travel. But this auspicious start, from domestic certification to the beginning of commercial operations, is likely to be the easiest leg of a long journey to international relevance. Many obstacles remain before the C919 and Comac can equal the success of rivals Airbus and Boeing. Airworthiness certification by foreign authorities and proving the plane’s profitability are the two major milestones yet to be reached, analysts said. “Comac has a lot of convincing to do,” said Aviation Analyst Li Hanming. “The best way to showcase the C919’s virtues and viability for the global aviation industry is to let Chinese airlines run it well.” The past year, China Eastern Airlines used four C919 aircraft flying domestic routes from Shanghai to Beijing, Chengdu and Xian. Tickets are hard to obtain as aviation enthusiasts want to try out the Chinese airliner. As of early May, the model had carried a cumulative 245,000 passengers on 1,800 flights. Building on the momentum from the plane’s international debut at the Singapore Airshow in February, the C919 made its first commercial flight outside mainland China: a chartered flight from Hong Kong to Shanghai on June 1.
China's first attempt to build a passenger jet didn't go well. A model of the ill-fated Y-10 is still displayed at the main assembly site of Comac, but the plane never received any orders and only two models are still preserved. More than 30 years after funding constraints and design flaws clipped the wings of the Y-10, the C919 – the Y-10’s spiritual descendant – is rolling off the production line.
Ten years ago, almost to the day, President Xi Jinping toured Comac’s Shanghai headquarter. Sitting in the pilot seat of a model C919 cockpit, he exhorted pilots and engineers to do their utmost to produce a modern Chinese jet. “In the past, some said the best choice for us is to rent passenger aircraft from others, and that the last option is to make our own,” Xi said. “But we have reversed this notion.” The next decade saw more than 100,000 engineers and workers brought together to work on the C919. They came from 36 tertiary institutions and 200 businesses across China, with total investment reaching hundreds of billions of yuan. Political significance aside, Beijing’s dogged pursuit of its own airliner also makes commercial sense, as it can leverage its enormous market and state capacity to ensure the C919 gets off the ground. More than one-fifth of the world’s new planes will fly in Chinese airspace between now and 2041, Beijing-based Cinda Securities noted in a report last year. New plane demand from the world’s second-largest economy will hit 9,284 during that time, worth about USD1.47 trillion. Comac’s own estimates put the country’s demand for narrow-body jets between now and 2041 at 6,288 with a potential value of USD749.3 billion. Plans are afoot to supercharge production as orders pour in. The China’s three biggest state-owned carriers – China Eastern, Air China and China Southern Airlines – have already signed deals with Comac for 100 C919s each.
To expand on its domestic success, Comac has embarked on a quest for international adoption, with work ongoing to obtain airworthiness certification for the C919 from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Once endorsed, Comac can pitch its plane to foreign buyers as an alternative as the traditional duopoly faces challenges in meeting global demand – the EU’s Airbus is struggling to ramp up its output, and U.S.-based Boeing is in a tailspin following a bout of high-profile accidents. “We have aimed for 2025 to get the all-clear from EASA,” said an optimistic Jie Yuwen, Deputy Director of the Civil Aviation Administration of China’s (CAAC) Airworthiness Certification Center in Shanghai. Gu Xin, Director of the Center, confirmed the 2025 timeline. “We very much look forward to certification next year. We are working hard, as this requires cooperation from both sides,” Gu said. “Certification from EASA means identifying if there is any safety problem with the C919 and put everything on the table for discussion,” he said. “We are confident the plane, having been certified to fly in China, is also safe to fly elsewhere.” Gu added he and his colleagues had meticulously reviewed more than 6,100 reports related to the C919’s domestic certification. The goal of certification by 2025 is an ambitious one – perhaps too ambitious, some industry observers said. Mayur Patel, head of Asia for OAG Aviation, a global air travel data provider based in Singapore, said the EU’s certification process is stringent. He didn't expect the all-clear any time soon, but is cautiously optimistic that the C919 will ultimately be certified by EASA.
Chinese aviation officials concede that courting foreign airlines could be a more daunting task than convincing the EU regulator. Gu said the threshold for a plane to be commercially successful is deliveries of 1,000 units or more. John Grant, Founder of London-based JG Aviation Consultants, said airlines have yet to develop interest in the C919. “The C919 may have some appeal for regional airlines in China, but it has little attraction to those outside the region who are committed to either Boeing or Airbus,” he said. “For airlines, the choice of aircraft is a fundamental consideration, the most important cost element. They require complete confidence in an aircraft type and its performance, operational support and flexibility.” Comac may also need time to establish service centers outside China.
Meanwhile, Comac is working on the C919's successor planes. The wide-body C929 is designed to travel international routes of up to 12,000 km. The C929 was originally announced as part of a joint venture with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), but the latter’s involvement has been in doubt since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions levied against Moscow by the West. Comac has also already begun design work on the C939, a new wide-body plane and the third in its series of home-grown airliners. But a testable prototype is still years away, the South China Morning Post reports.
