China’s auto industry is likely to sell more than 40 million vehicles per year over the next five years – including 10 million to the overseas market – as the sector still has “vast potential” for growth. The estimate by Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), indicates that China’s auto industry – already the world’s top exporter in volume terms – could see overseas sales nearly double by 2030. Cui acknowledged that his estimate may be more optimistic than the general consensus, but stressed that China had the ability to achieve it as there was still plenty of room for growth in both the domestic and global markets. “There is still vast potential for market expansion in China’s less developed regions, such as mid-western districts and rural areas, where car ownership levels could gradually surpass those in metropolises like Beijing and Shanghai,” he said. China’s vehicle ownership rate – 250 cars for every 1,000 people – remains relatively low compared with developed countries, Cui pointed out.
In Europe, there were 641 vehicles in use for every 1,000 people as of 2020, while in the United States there were 860, according the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers. The Global South will “inevitably” become a key growth market for Chinese cars, with more buyers choosing cost-effective Chinese brands rather than cheap second-hand vehicles from the U.S., Europe, Japan and South Korea, according to Cui. He also noted that the shorter lifespan of electric vehicles – around 10 years, compared with 18 years for petrol-powered cars – was likely to boost overall demand as the adoption of electric cars continued to rise.
China has emerged as the world’s largest car manufacturer, seller and exporter in recent years, with the country’s early adoption of electric vehicles helping domestic brands establish themselves as global industry leaders. In 2024, China’s total auto sales reached a record-breaking 31.4 million units, with electric vehicles accounting for more than 40% of the total, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). The country exported 4.96 million passenger cars that year. China’s passenger car sales climbed to 14.74 million units in the first eight months of 2025, up 9.5% year-on-year, according to the CPCA. The country’s car exports over the same period reached 4.29 million units, up 13.7% year-on-year, CAAM data showed, as reported by the South China Morning Post.
