Chinese investors rank U.S.-China relations and domestic demand as their top two concerns for the next 12 months, while highlighting a weak property market and declining birth rates as key risks, according to the quarterly survey results by the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business (CKGSB) in Beijing. The survey sampled about 2,100 investors across five major hubs, including Beijing and Shenzhen, in the fourth quarter of 2025. The primary concern, cited by 57.1% of respondents, was the trajectory of U.S.-China relations, closely followed by a majority expressing worries about weak domestic demand. With the tit-for-tat tariff war between the world’s two largest economies paused in late 2025, “investors have become less worried than before”, said Liu Jing, Professor of Accounting and Finance at CKGSB, and lead author on the survey findings. Liu warned that elevated global uncertainty – ranging from shifting U.S. trade policies to financial risks emerging in Japan – could further test investor confidence in 2026, reinforcing the importance of boosting domestic demand and strengthening China’s long-term growth foundations.
Around 56.8% of Chinese investors expressed worries about weak domestic demand, according to the survey findings. Only 36.7% of respondents expected housing prices to rise over the following 12 months, a sharp 9.7 percentage point drop from the previous quarterly survey. “The negative wealth effect associated with falling home prices inevitably suppresses both the willingness and capacity of households to consume,” as declining asset prices cause households to feel less wealthy and curtail their spending. By the end of 2025, year-on-year prices for new commercial housing and second-hand homes across 70 major cities had declined by 3.2% and 5.9%, respectively, the CKGSB report said. The national investment in real estate development recorded a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Plummeting birth rates present an even more daunting challenge, as China’s newborn population fell below 8 million in 2025 for the first time since 1949. “Birth rates do not only affect current demand; they shape future demand and long-term expectations,” Liu said. “It is fair to say that the most critical issue facing the Chinese economy is the declining fertility rate – it is even more consequential than the weak real estate sector.” Liu suggested that the government should provide more robust support to improve the fertility rate this year. He noted that China could learn from international experiences, such as implementing compulsory parental leave for both fathers and mothers to mitigate the career disadvantages women face due to childbirth. Moreover, he also proposed that the government consider purchasing unsold housing to provide to families with children at discounted prices, the South China Morning Post reports.
