After years of expansion, China’s liquor industry is shifting from rapid growth to more rational and balanced progress, as brands adapt to changing consumer preferences and market saturation. Cost-efficiency and international expansion have emerged as key drivers of future growth. The China Alcoholic Drinks Association (CADA) reported that the country’s liquor market, including imported spirits, reached a nearly CNY2 trillion scale, with 9.4 million registered enterprises in 2024. The report, titled Development of the Liquor Industry in China 2024, highlighted the deflation of the long-standing market bubble, giving way to a more rational and sustainable business environment that prioritizes quality over volume. As the market matures, brands are highlighting cost-effectiveness, international expansion and targeting younger consumers, according to the report.
Due to challenges such as high inventory levels, price fluctuations and changing consumer behavior, industry leaders are adjusting their strategies. According to a Mintel report, liquor and beer continue to dominate the alcoholic beverage market, accounting for over 90% of total sales in recent years. “Liquor brands have been continuously innovating in digital marketing to adapt to market shifts and changes in consumer behavior,” said Marta Zhang, Senior Analyst, China Insights at Mintel. CADA forecasted that 2025 will be a turning point for the industry and encouraged players in the sector to balance supply and demand, leverage digital tools and explore international opportunities. Leading liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai Group, Shunxin Agriculture, Swellfun and Huangtai Liquor have demonstrated resilience, reporting stable or improving financial results. As the market leader, Kweichow Moutai continues to post robust financial results. The company is projected to have achieved CNY173.8 billion in revenue for 2024, marking a 15.44% year-on-year increase. Its net profit is expected to have reached CNY85.7 billion, up 14.67%, reinforcing strong demand for high-end liquor among premium consumers.
Swellfun, a subsidiary of Diageo, has avoided excess inventory by shifting from a traditional stocking model to a controlled supply strategy. This has helped stabilize its pricing and maintain its premium brand value. Swellfun is expected to post CNY5.22 billion in revenue for 2024, a 5% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 6% to CNY1.341 billion. Shunxin Agriculture, parent company of Niulanshan Erguotou, is expected to report a net profit of CNY1.9 billion to CNY2.6 billion for 2024, a major turnaround from its CNY2.96 billion loss in the previous year. The recovery is attributed to steady growth in its liquor business and an improved pork division. Similarly, Huangtai Liquor forecasts a net profit of CNY250 million to CNY330 million for 2024, up 266% to 319%, reinforcing the importance of strong brand management and strategic adaptation in a competitive market.
Mid-tier and smaller liquor brands are under pressure from intensified competition, inventory challenges and changing consumption habits. Shede Spirits anticipates a net profit of CNY320 million to CNY420 million, marking a 76.29% to 81.93% decline year-on-year, but forecasts a recovery in 2025. Qinghai Huzhu TianYouDe Highland Barley Spirit expects a 50% to 60% drop in net profit. Jiugui Liquor is projected to see a 97.26% to 98.17% decline, with profits between CNY10 million and CNY15 million. Cai Xuefei, Liquor Industry Expert, expects that the year 2025 will be a pivotal year for deep structural adjustments. He said that rational development has become an industry consensus, with factors such as government stimulus policies, price corrections and inventory reductions, expected to position the sector for recovery in the coming years. Industry experts said that liquor brands must adapt to evolving consumer preferences. Younger generations are increasingly exploring lower alcohol content, innovative packaging and new drinking experiences. At the same time, e-commerce and digital marketing are playing a more prominent role in shaping consumer behavior, making an enhanced online presence crucial for brands. International expansion remains a key growth avenue for many liquor brands in China.
Data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce & Animal By-products show that China’s total alcohol export value reached USD1.9 billion in 2024, up 6% year-on-year. The total export volume hit 750 million liters, up 5.1% year-on-year. Liquor accounted for 51% of the total alcohol export value, reaching USD970 million – a 20.4% increase. Liquor export volume rose 6.3% to 16.42 million liters, with an average price of USD59 per liter, up 13.3%. Analyst Cai Xuefei said that 2024 marked the inaugural year of Chinese liquor’s “going global”, urging brands to explore international markets for long-term growth, the China Daily reports.
