Self-driving vehicles are navigating from science-fiction movies to the streets of large Chinese cities, overcoming obstacles and uncertainty as they enter everyday use. The fast-evolving technology first made headlines in China almost a decade ago. In 2015, Swedish carmaker Volvo organized a test of its hands-free vehicles traveling at 70 kilometers per hour on Beijing’s Sixth Ring Road. Chinese technology giant Baidu set up its intelligent driving group in 2017, unveiling its Apollo autonomous driving plan the same year. Pony.ai, founded by former Baidu engineers, established its first autonomous driving research and development center in 2016. By late February, more than 20 cities had put in place policies supporting autonomous driving tests, issuing licenses to over 60 companies.
Progress had been generally going smoothly until July, when a short video went viral on social media of one of Baidu’s Apollo Go driverless vehicles hitting a scooter in Wuhan, capital of Hubei province. Baidu was quick to explain that the accident was caused by the scooter driver running a red light when the driverless vehicle started to move. Despite the accident being a minor one, it raised complaints from local drivers and residents. Apollo Go’s Chinese name is Luobo Kuaipao, which literally means “robots run fast”. But in Wuhan they are called “dumb robots”, as more footage emerged showing their mishaps. One driverless vehicle is seen stopping on the road in front of an empty plastic bag, causing a traffic jam. In another video, two vehicles are seen braking to face each other, and not knowing what to do next.
But safety is the real concern. When that vehicle in Wuhan failed to see the scooter, local residents started to doubt the safety and reliability of driverless vehicles, as manufacturers have long claimed they are safer than human drivers. At an event in May, Baidu Vice President Wang Yunpeng said the number of insurance claims of its Apollo Go vehicles over the past two years was 1/14th of that for human drivers. In the second quarter of this year, Baidu’s Apollo Go provided about 899,000 rides for passengers, up 26% year-on-year. As of July 28, the number of rides provided to the public by Apollo Go surpassed 7 million, the company said in its latest financial report. The safety level of autonomous driving is 10 times that of manned driving, according to Pony.ai Vice President Zhang Ning. The company had conducted 3.5 million km of driverless testing globally as of May this year.
A robotaxi doesn’t have a quick solution when an injured passenger or road user needs help as it has to wait until the fleet operator sends someone to the scene. If the accident is a minor one, the insurance company can try to settle, but in the case of a more severe accident that causes injury or death, it is likely the fleet company will be held accountable. It is however unclear who would face jail, the software engineer, the CEO, the company owner, or possibly more than one of them.
Taxi drivers are also complaining that robotaxi fares are much cheaper. A receipt for a 28-km, 64-minute robotaxi trip in Wuhan showed that the fare was just CNY26.52, much cheaper than a normal taxi fare. But a closer look revealed that a discount of CNY109.52 was applied. Wuhan has over 3,300 km of roads eligible for robotaxis to use, the longest in China. Robotaxis received 850,000 ride bookings in the first half of this year, more than for the whole of 2023. In July, an Apollo Go vehicle booked up to 20 rides in one day, the same number as a regular taxi. There are around 400 Apollo Go vehicles in Wuhan, said Baidu CEO Robin Li. “Our fleet accounts for just 1% of Wuhan’s total taxi fleet. It may take quite some time, even many years, for the proportion to grow,” said Li. It is expected that the emergence of robotaxis will profoundly transform the labor market, with taxi drivers losing their job but also new job opportunities arising.
Baidu insists that robotaxis, if used at a city-level, can solve problems such as traffic jams and road accidents. However, as long as there are drivers and robotaxis on the road at the same time, reduced congestion and collision-free motoring will not happen, analysts said. Apollo Go is expected to become profitable by 2025, but currently the company loses almost USD11,000 a car annually in Wuhan, Haitong International Securities estimated. Per-vehicle annual profit could increase to nearly USD16,000, the securities firm said. McKinsey & Co has forecast that China will become the world’s largest market for self-driving vehicles, with revenue from such vehicles and mobility services exceeding USD500 billion by 2030. China is expected to operate the world’s largest robotaxi fleet of about 12 million self-driving vehicles by 2040, followed by the U.S. with around 7 million, according to a report by research company BloombergNEF, as reported by the China Daily.
