China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, reaching CNY94.97 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This growth indicates that the world's second-largest economy continues to show positive and resilient growth momentum amid various internal and external challenges, an NBS official and experts said. The 4.8% GDP growth in the first nine months shows that economic growth is stable and that economic activities in the third quarter have been keeping pace. In the third quarter, GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, slightly down from the 4.7% growth recorded in the second quarter. Analysts anticipate that the strong policy measures introduced by the government so far this year, along with expectations for additional stimulus initiatives, will provide additional momentum for the country's economic development. Despite a complicated external environment and emerging challenges at home, the Chinese economy has posted generally stable performance, Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the NBS, told a press conference. “Positive factors driving a steady economic recovery accumulated and increased in September,” Sheng said.
The added value of the primary industry reached CNY5.77 trillion, up 3.4% year-on-year; that of the secondary industry totaled CNY36.14 trillion, up 5.4%; and the tertiary industry reached CNY53.07 trillion, up 4.7%. The added value of industrial enterprises with a turnover of more than CNY20 million increased by 5.8% year-on-year, as industrial production is expected to further stabilize. Fixed asset investment (FAI) in the first three quarters edged up by 3.4% year-on-year, reaching CNY37.89 trillion. Investment in infrastructure rose by 4.1% and that of the manufacturing sector increased by 9.2%.
Domestic consumption showed a pick-up trend. Total retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters were up 3.3%, reaching CNY35.35 trillion. Retail sales of merchandise stood at CNY31.41 trillion, up 3% on a yearly basis, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Over the same period, online retail sales in China totaled CNY10.89 trillion, up 8.6% year-on-year. Of that amount, online retail sales of physical goods reached CNY9.07 trillion, accounting for 25.7% of total retail sales, up 7.9% year-on-year. “Online consumption has maintained a good growth momentum, and the growth rate has been faster than the overall retail sales growth, indicating that online shopping is increasingly valued by consumers.
The resilient and hard-won growth rate in the first three quarters is the result of several positive factors, including government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption, trade, and investment, Li Chang'an, Professor at the Academy of China Open Economy Studies of the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times. Chinese authorities have already put in place measures to stimulate market demand, including the issuance of CNY1 trillion worth of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and a program for large-scale equipment renewal and trade-ins of consumer goods.
Foreign trade, a pillar of economic growth, also played a driving role. According to the latest figures released by China's General Administration of Customs (GAC), China's total foreign trade reached CNY32.33 trillion in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year. The strong performance of foreign trade in the first three quarters reflects continued global demand for China's competitive products and an optimized trade structure, with the “new three” items – electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic products – gaining significant footholds, Li said.
Meanwhile, the country's housing market, another key pillar of economic development, is showing positive signs of recovery. Following three years of consistent policy adjustments, China's housing market appears to have bottomed out, Minister of Housing and Urban-rural Development Ni Hong said at a press conference. China plans to expand bank credit lines for “white list” housing projects to CNY4 trillion by the end of 2024. This will encompass all qualifying property projects in the list and stabilize the real estate market, Ni said.
Amid China's intensive policy measures, foreign institutions have recently revised their GDP growth forecasts for China upward for 2024. For example, Goldman Sachs recently increased its China 2024 GDP projection from 4.7% to 4.9%. Favorable conditions for economic stabilization and recovery are increasing, and confidence in achieving the expected target of “around 5%” is growing, an official and experts said, according to the Global Times.
But the South China Morning Post adds that China’s economy grew by 4.6% in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, with the growth rate the lowest since the middle of last year. “While it is a marginal decline from the second quarter, it makes the official growth target of 5 % difficult to achieve if this trend continues to the end of the year,” said Zhang Zhiwei, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
