China's efforts to reach a carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 might require an investment of up to CNY300 trillion, according to Zhang Xiaohui, Dean of the Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance and a prominent Chinese economist. He said that pursuing the goals will not come at the costs of economic growth and people's livelihood. Realizing coordinated, sustainable and high-quality development in combination with a carbon emission reduction push is key, he said at the Tsinghua PBCSF Economic Forum on Carbon Neutrality in Beijing. “As a result, China should follow its own pace when pushing for the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, strive to balance the economic development and the reduction of carbon emissions, avoid and resolve risks during the transition and achieve an orderly, fair and green transition,” Zhang said, noting green finance will play an essential role in achieving those goals.
Based on estimates by multiple institutions, Zhang said that China's net-zero strategy would require investment of up to CNY7.5 trillion each year until 2060, equivalent to around 10% of annual investments made in the country. Citing historical experiences and statistics, she said that green finance would likely contribute 90% of the investment, while government financial support would only account for 10%. Ju Jiandong, Unigroup Chair Professor at the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University, said that China's GDP growth will not take a big hit before reaching the carbon peak by 2030. “If we do not take administrative means but economic measures to reach the goals, the impact on China's annual GDP growth will be lower than 1%,” he told the Global Times at the forum.
Still, Ju said that given China's status as a developing country, the goals are very significant and deserve “encouragement” from other countries instead of criticism and disruption. The U.S. imposing hefty anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on China-produced solar panels does not help achieve this goal. Ju urged the U.S. not to pursue confrontation with China in tackling climate change. At the forum, Ma Yongsheng, General Manager of Sinopec, said that China's oil consumption is expected to reach its peak at around 2026, giving natural gas a bigger role and send it to become China's biggest fossil energy source at around 2050, according to Ma.
