National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Commissioner Kang Yi announced at a press conference the yearly figures for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, population, unemployment and other metrics that will inform policy decisions in 2025. In March, the National People's Congress (NPC) set a GDP growth target of “about 5%”, and this target has now been met, Kang announced. Year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter was 5.4%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6 percentage point. China’s long-beleaguered property market is showing signs of stabilization, as 23 of the 70 cities surveyed by the NBS reported month-on-month increases for new home prices in December, compared to 17 cities a month earlier.
China’s population dropped by 1.39 million to 1.4083 billion in 2024, but the number of births rose to 9.54 million, up from 9.02 million newborns in 2023. As births fail to outpace deaths, China’s population has been on the decline – with the numbers indicating a third consecutive year of absolute decline. The country’s birth rate – the number of births per 1,000 people – has fallen yearly since 2016. In 2023, it reached an all-time low of 6.39, equating to 9.02 million births – the lowest annual figure since records began in 1949.
In 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5% year-on-year to CNY48.79 trillion. Total retail sales of consumer goods went up by 3.7% year-on-year in December, an increase of 0.12 percentage point month-on-month. Overall fixed-asset investment (FAI), covering major projects like infrastructure, manufacturing and large-scale construction, saw a 3.2% year-on-year increase last year. Property investment – where long-term decline has weighed down broader growth – shrank by 10.6% year-on-year in 2024. Economists said the mixed messages from the latest macro-economic data indicate a need for more policy support.
“The shift of policy stance in September last year helped the economy to stabilize in Q4,” said Zhiwei Zhang, Chief Economist of Pinpoint Asset Management. “But large and persistent policy stimulus is required to boost economic momentum and sustain the recovery.” China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than a year earlier. The widely watched youth unemployment rate has not yet been released. China’s private investment, often used to gauge the confidence and sentiment of entrepreneurs, had improved to a degree in December. While the full year’s figure still represented a decline – down 0.1% – the drop was 0.4% for the period from January to November.
Many of China’s localities – including the most economically vital regions of the country – have already announced their GDP targets for the year at sessions of their legislatures. Fujian province has projected growth to land anywhere in the range of 5% to 5.5%, a more definitive goal than last year’s “higher than 5%”. Other regions – particularly those reliant on exports – have been more cautious. Both Shanghai and Guangdong have held steady in their estimates for 2025, aiming for “around 5%”.
This report about GDP growth is based on a live read-out of the press conference by the South China Morning Post.
Trade between China and the European Union (EU) reached CNY5,591.5 billion, marking a modest 1.6% rise from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) showed. China's exports to the EU totaled CNY3,675.1 billion, a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, reflecting strong European demand for Chinese goods. Imports from the EU reached CNY1,916.4 billion, down 3.3% from a year earlier. The EU continued to be China's second-largest trading partner during the first 11 months of 2024. Among the EU member states, Germany maintained its position as one of China's primary key trade partners, with bilateral trade reaching CNY1,436.4 billion last year. China's exports to Germany rose by 7.8% to reach CNY761.8 billion, while imports from Germany falling by 9.7%, per the GAC data.
China has maintained trade growth in its traditional markets such as the EU and the U.S., Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs (GAC), said during a press conference held in Beijing. The EU is China's largest source of imports for consumer goods and the top export market for China's mechanical and electrical products, Wang said, adding that the close economic and trade ties between the two sides have reinforced the China-EU shared economic interests. In a breakdown, last year China's trade volume rose by 2% with France, 4.5% with Spain, and 12.9% with Hungary, official Customs data showed.
China-U.S. trade increased by 4.9% in yuan-denominated terms in 2024 to CNY4.898 trillion. China's exports to the U.S. in 2024 reached CNY3.734 trillion, reflecting a 6.1% increase, while the imports rose 1.2% to CNY1.164 trillion.
The total value of China’s foreign trade reached a record high of CNY43.85 trillion in 2024, marking a 5% year-on year growth. The country’s exports amounted to CNY25.45 trillion last year, an increase of 7.1% year-on-year, while imports totaled CNY18.39 trillion, a 2.3% rise compared with the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2024, China’s exports grew 9.2% year-on-year, marking an acceleration of 2.9 percentage points compared with the first three quarters.
