The number of Covid-infections in China exploded to “unimaginable numbers” during the past week. While reliable numbers are unavailable, in Beijing more than half the population has been infected. In other cities the numbers vary as the pandemic rips through the population. The zero-Covid policy has been abandoned overnight, replaced by a focus on protecting the elderly and vulnerable. Hospitals have been overwhelmed by feverish patients and pharmacies have run out of cold medicine and other remedies which are believed to relieve Covid symptoms. A fourth booster shot is being belatedly rolled out. The courier network has collapsed, as most delivery personnel have been infected, making it difficult for people quarantining at home to procure daily necessities. In Beijing, public live has grounded to a halt, with companies reporting that up to 90% of the workforce is suffering from Covid. Until a few days ago, a 48h Covid test was still needed to enter restaurants and entertainment places in Beijing, but this requirement has now also been scrapped.
“We have numbers of infections unimaginable before – they are hitting a population that is still lacking vaccinations,” according to German Ambassador to China Patricia Flor. “We don’t know, are there enough intensive care unit (ICU) beds? Nobody is really prepared, mentally, for this situation.” She added that “everybody scrambles to deal with the consequences” because of a lack of preparations and advance notice before the abrupt change in the zero-Covid policy.
Omicron has spread like a tsunami in Beijing. After the policy change, the shockwave across Beijing was intense, exceeding most people's expectations. Since people aren't doing nucleic acid testing anymore, relevant authorities don't have accurate data on how many people have been infected. Based on observations, people tend to believe that there have already been millions of infections so far. Some non-governmental estimations based on big data claimed that by December 13, 38% of Beijing's population had already been infected, the official Global Times reports. A notice posted in the pharmacy window at Haidian Hospital in western Beijing said “all pharmacists on duty are sick – please bear with us”, a situation repeated in other departments.
Leading Chinese epidemiologists are optimistic that the epidemic situation will improve by spring next year and will return to normal after the epidemic peak in January and February, although the number of Covid-19 infections will increase in the short term. They made the remarks at the health sub-forum of the 2023 Global Times Annual Conference on December 15.
German firms in China are bracing for disruptions from surging Covid infections after the Chinese government’s decision to ease its zero-Covid policy, according to Clas Neumann, Chairman of the German Chamber of Commerce in China. “We hope there will be no further lockdowns and we hope, of course, that we can find a way to work together here with the authorities,” Neumann said at an event organized on the occasion of the annual business sentiment survey, which found that, over the past three years, China’s zero-Covid policy has fueled diversification away from the country, as well as more localization within it.
China’s strict coronavirus controls, geopolitical tensions, and the wider implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were cited as the key reasons German firms found China less attractive for investments this year. “Geopolitical tensions put additional pressure on German companies and are causing decision-makers to re-evaluate their engagement in China,” said Neumann. He also said that China’s U-turn in its coronavirus policy since last month is shaping up to be “a game changer”, and that German firms will be looking to quickly adjust their operations to overcome an expected surge in infections. Neumann is also hopeful that international travel restrictions – a key problem for foreign companies – will be removed next year. “In the current scenario, it doesn’t really make sense any more to lock down people who come from abroad if you also have this huge number of Covid-positive cases locally. So, I think it should be adjusted,” Neumann said. Confidence among the 593 polled German firms declined significantly when it came to doing business in China. Only 51% said they intended to increase their investments in China in the next two years, compared with 71% last year. “This marks a drop of around 20 percentage points from surveys of recent years, which historically report investment intentions at around 70%,” the report said.
Local governments have been asked to increase the supply of Covid-19 related drugs and antigen test kits as many people living in urban areas are expected to return to their hometowns for the upcoming New Year holiday and Spring Festival on January 22. Medical facilities and drugstores in townships and villages should increase their inventories of fever and cough drugs, traditional Chinese medicine and antigen test kits, according to the notice by the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council. The amount of antigen test kits in stock at the township and village hospitals should reach 15% to 20% of the total population in the area, and more densely populated regions are encouraged to further increase stocks, according to the notice.
Authorities suggested people quarantining at home monitor their health closely, use rapid antigen tests, self-treat with non-prescription drugs and only go to the hospital if symptoms do not abate after a few days. Local governments also followed up with lists of recommended drugs, grass-roots clinics and detailed descriptions of symptoms.
Passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel period is expected to recover to 90% of the pre-pandemic 2019 level, with about 360 million railway passenger trips made and the average daily number of train trips reaching about 9 million, China Railway said. The number represents a 42% increase over the same period early this year, and if it is realized, it will represent a new high since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, according to China Railway. Air travel in the 2023 Chinese New Year period will return to 80% of the pre-pandemic level, travel platform Qunar predicted.
The 2023 Spring Festival travel rush will run from January 17 to February 25. Although inter-provincial travel restrictions were removed under the optimized anti-Covid measures, the first infection peak will probably come just before Spring Festival.
Hong Kong has abolished all Covid-control measures for arriving passengers, including the quarantine requirement, although they still need to be tested. Proof of vaccination is still needed for entry to most public venues.
This overview is based on reports by the China Daily, Shanghai Daily, Global Times and South China Morning Post.
