China has significantly raised its forecast for grain self-sufficiency in the next decade by pledging to build a “diversified food supply system”, a move that has the potential to impact corn and soybean farmers in the United States and rice exporters in Thailand and Vietnam. The Agricultural Outlook Report for 2023-32 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs details China’s plan to grow 88.4% of the grain – mainly rice, wheat, corn and soybeans – it needs within a decade, up from the current level of 82%. It also plans to reduce grain imports to 122 million metric tons from last year’s 146.9 million metric tons. “The foundation of grain security will be consolidated steadily,” by increasing farming acreage and promoting higher-yield seeds, farming machinery and technology. “The agricultural trade structure will be changed significantly, with grain imports expected to fall 16% over the next 10 years.” Chinese leaders repeated calls for the Chinese people to hold its rice bowl in its own hands.
President Xi Jinping also said at the end of last year that the global market turbulence caused by the Ukraine conflict had shown that agriculture is a “national security issue of extreme importance” amid the economic rivalry with the United States and other global geopolitical uncertainties. Beijing’s promise to buy a large amount of U.S. soybeans and corn under the phase-one trade deal that was signed in early 2020 led to a significant rise of American agricultural exports over the past three years, although the two-year agreement expired in 2022. China became the largest agricultural export market for the U.S. last year, with exports reaching a record high of USD36.4 billion, including a record high soybean shipment of USD16.4 billion.
“China does not have too much trouble with grain self-sufficiency now, but its soybean production is a more obvious shortcoming,” said Weng Ming, Researcher at the Institute of Rural Development under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). Domestic soybean production in China is set to grow at an annual rate of 7% over the next 10 years to lift the self-sufficiency ratio from 18.5% to 30%. China’s soybean imports could fall to 83.6 million metric tons by 2032, while corn imports would fall below 7 million metric tons from last year’s 20.6 million metric tons, the report estimated.
China's soybean imports dropped by 5.6% year-on-year to 91.1 million metric tons last year, with Brazil providing 59.7% and the U.S. 32.4%, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce. China’s purchase of U.S. corn dropped by a quarter to 14.9 million metric tons last year, or 72% of its total. “Although we have seen many recent technological breakthroughs in China’s agricultural sector, the biggest hurdle remains their practical application on farmland, and Beijing’s policies need to be practically implemented in the countryside,” Weng added, as reported by the South China Morning Post.
