China’s export growth surged in the first two months of this year, as global demand booms, while experts pointed to the likelihood of strong momentum for the rest of the year as AI-driven tech investments ramp up. Exports jumped 21.8% from a year earlier – the biggest gain in four years – to USD656.58 billion in the combined figures for January and February released by Customs authorities. This represented a significant acceleration from the 6.6% growth recorded in December and the 5.5% rise recorded for all of last year. China often combines trade data for the first two months of the year to smooth out distortions caused by the Chinese New Year holiday period – which began in January last year and took place in February this year – and to represent underlying trends more consistently. But economists said the holiday impact could not fully account for the surprisingly strong data in the first two months.
The surge is “mainly a reflection of strong global demand, especially for tech products, which are central to many economies”, said Larry Hu, Chief China Economist at Macquarie Group, but “whether the momentum lasts will depend largely on how long the AI-driven tech boom continues”. “The buoyant external demand also implies less urgency to boost domestic demand,” he added. Zhang Zhiwei, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, echoed that sentiment, pointing out that “strong exports and a lower growth target suggest that China is unlikely to launch stimulus measures any time soon”.
After a year of turbulent trade ties and tariff hikes between China and the United States, exports to the U.S. fell 11% year-on-year, in the first two months of 2026, compared with a 30% decline in December and a 20% drop for all of last year. Despite the slump, the U.S. remained China’s largest single-country export market in 2025. Meanwhile, shipments to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) jumped 29.4% in the first two months of this year, following growth of 11.2% in December and 13.4% for all of last year. Exports to the European Union surged by 27.8% in the first two months, compared with an 11.6% rise in December and 8.4% growth for all of last year, with shipments to Germany, France and Italy seeing 31.3%, 31.9% and 36.4% growth, respectively. Exports to Latin America climbed 16.4% in the first two months of the year after growing by 9.8% in December, while shipments to Africa jumped nearly 50% after expanding by 21.8% in December.
In the first two months of the year, China’s imports from the U.S. plunged 26.7 % year-on-year, standing out sharply against strong growth from other suppliers, including India, South Korea and Australia, from which China bought 43.1%, 35.8% and 33.8% more, year-on-year, respectively. Sales of China's high-tech industry grew 16.1% year-on-year in the first two months of this year, the State Taxation Administration (STA). Sales of high-tech services rose 17.2%. Sales in the high-technology manufacturing segment rose 14.5%, driven by demand in low-altitude economy services, commercial space activities and consumer electronics.
The China-Europe Railway Express carried out 3,501 freight trips in the first two months of this year, carrying 352,000 20-foot equivalent units of goods, up 32% and 25% year-on-year, respectively. Trade between China and the EU surged 19.9% year-on-year to CNY998.94 billion, outpacing the rise of 18.3% in China's total foreign trade during the period.
