When the patent on semaglutide – a crucial ingredient in weight-loss drugs – expires in China next year, up to 20 generic players in China are ready to vie for market share and exert downward pressure on prices. In other markets, the patent will expire in 2031 or 2032. Semaglutide is sold by Novo Nordisk as Ozempic. In addition, over 60 novel GLP-1 drug candidates are undergoing late-stage clinical trials in China, and these would potentially compete directly with semaglutide and rival product tirzepatide developed by U.S.-based Eli Lilly. The two products dominate the global weight loss drug market. In April, Beijing launched a nationwide weight management campaign to address what it said was “a major public health threat”.
According to a study commissioned by the National Health Commission (NHC), some 34.3% of adults were overweight while another 16.4% were obese in 2018, up from 22.8% and 7.1% in 2002, respectively. Just over 70% of the population would be overweight or obese by 2030, and if the problem was not addressed effectively, it would consume 22% of the nation’s total healthcare budget, according to the Commission. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved semaglutide for type 2 diabetes in 2017 and extended approval for obesity and related diseases in 2021.
Semaglutide was the world’s second bestselling drug last year, generating USD20.8 billion in sales from two formulations for diabetes and USD8.4 billion from a formulation for chronic weight management, after Merck’s cancer drug Keytruda that raked in USD29.5 billion, according to the pharmaceutical publication Drug Discovery & Development. Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide recorded sales of USD11.5 billion from diabetes prescriptions and USD4.9 billion from weight loss use. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk were No.9 and No.11, respectively, in terms of global pharmaceutical revenues last year.
Industry estimates for the global anti-obesity drugs market range from USD100 billion to USD150 billion by 2035. Sales last year were around USD30 billion. China’s weight loss drugs market could grow to CNY40 billion in 2035 from a low base. Sales are primarily driven by Novo Nordisk, which reported USD285 million in GLP-1 drug sales for diabetes in China in the first quarter, and USD11 million in sales for weight loss applications, the South China Morning Post reports.
