The possibility of a big wave of Covid-19 infections in China in the future is slim, experts said, adding that no new variants with significantly strong transmissibility or virulence have been detected. Wu Zunyou, Chief Epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said that China faced a major outbreak following the optimization of Covid-19 control measures, and most of those who were infected have either recovered or are recovering. “Herd immunity across the country is high at present, so the chances of experiencing a fresh wave of the outbreak in the coming months are slim,” he said during a news conference. Infections in China peaked in late December and started declining thereafter. About 80% of the population had been infected by January 21, Wu said. “Infection clusters will likely occur sporadically in some regions in the future, but the chances of an acute, national epidemic are slim,” he added.
Chen Cao, Researcher at the China CDC, said that since January 1, 39 sub-lineages of the Omicron variant have been detected in inbound passengers, with the majority being offshoots of BA. 5.2 and BF.7. These two were also the dominant strains during the recent domestic outbreak. “So far, no new variants with a significant increase in transmissibility, pathogenicity or immunity evasiveness have been detected,” Chen said. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 0.08% of infections in December were fatal, compared with 1.72% in 2021 and 2.33% in 2020.
Since December 9, 2022, positive results of nucleic acid testing in the population reported by all provinces showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The number of deaths from Covid-19 in hospitals hit a daily peak of 4,273 on January 4, but has declined since then, falling to 102 on February 6, a 97.6% drop from the peak, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese CDC) announced. It was the third release of specific Covid-19 figures by the Department since the country optimized response measures and downgraded its management. The number of positive cases peaked at 6.94 million on December 22, and then fluctuated and dropped to 900 positive cases on February 6.
The borders have reopened and quarantine is a thing of the past, but many barriers still exist to any kind of normal tourist travel to and from China. Anyone eager to enter mainland China for any purpose other than business, homecoming, family reunion or study will still have to wait. The Chinese authorities are not yet issuing tourist visas and have given no indication as to when that might change. Even an unexpired 10-year tourist visa for China wouldn’t be valid until the government gave the green light to leisure tourism, Daria Westerfield, Owner of the American agency River Oaks Travel, explained to the Bloomberg newswire. “We are still kind of in a holding pattern for the normal traveller to go see China.” Even when that green light is given there will remain hurdles, one of which is likely to be the scarcity and cost of flights. It will take time for airlines to ramp back up to pre-pandemic scheduling.
“It’s crucial for the international flight schedule to increase, which will make it easier to get to China and also bring down flight prices, which are still well above pre-pandemic levels,” George Cao, CEO of Dragon Trail International, told CNN Travel. “This has already started for certain destinations – for example, many flights between China and South Korea, and between China and Singapore, have resumed already.” Your country may also be one China retaliates against for having reimposed Covid-19 restrictions on Chinese arrivals only. What might happen if a visitor catches Covid-19 in China? Who will have to cover the costs if you have to wait for a negative test result before returning home? Could lockdowns be swiftly reimposed? Chinese tourists also face hurdles such a high prices. A seven-day trip from southwestern China to the Thai capital of Bangkok that would have cost CNY1,880 in 2018 now starts at CNY7,580. Moreover, some of the destinations most desired by Chinese tourists – Japan, South Korea and the United States included – are also placing specific restrictions on arriving Chinese.
This overview is based on reports by the China Daily, Shanghai Daily, Global Times and South China Morning Post.
