China’s trade with the United States has declined this year, official data shows, as U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Beijing from May 13 to 15 for a high-stakes summit with President Xi Jinping that could determine the future of economic relations between the world’s two largest economies. Both countries agreed to hold economic and trade talks in South Korea in preparation for the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.
China’s merchandise exports to the US fell 10.2% year-on-year to USD133.4 billion in the first four months of 2026, according to China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC). Imports from the U.S. also declined 10.9% to USD45.8 billion over the same period, bringing the bilateral trade surplus to a cumulative USD87.7 billion for the year so far. China posted better-than-expected trade growth in April, with the exports hitting a monthly record.
In line with that, shipments to the U.S. climbed 11.3% year-on-year to USD36.8 billion last month, bucking the trend from January to March. Imports from the U.S. also increased 9% to USD13.7 billion, bringing China’s bilateral trade surplus to USD23.1 billion for April, up from USD16.8 billion the previous month. The U.S.-China trade deficit has been a major point of contention between the world’s two largest economies since Trump’s first term, when his administration launched the first trade war. But recent U.S. Commerce Department data showed that mainland China had fallen to the fourth-largest contributor to the U.S. goods trade deficit after Taiwan, Vietnam and Mexico – its lowest ranking since joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001.
“Supply chains are diversifying, not decoupling,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis. “The U.S. remains reliant on Chinese intermediate inputs in electronics, auto parts and critical minerals,” she added, noting that some of these goods were transshipped to the U.S. from third markets. Even so, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer called for stability and further recalibration of the relationship in an interview with Fox News. “It’s been wildly unbalanced, with China exporting vast amounts of goods to the United States and largely blocking a lot of U.S. imports and goods,” said Greer, who is expected to join Trump on visit to Beijing. “I think there’s a world where we find out where we can optimize trade between China and the U.S. to achieve more balance.”
Beyond trade flows, a broader range of economic, financial and technology-related issues is expected to feature prominently in the coming negotiations. Beijing may raise concerns about tightening U.S. investment restrictions. Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the U.S. had plunged by 90% from its mid-2010s peak, ranking only 17th for new FDI in 2024. In late April, U.S. lawmakers also advanced 20 new export control measures that could further restrict Chinese access to American technology and prevent the country’s chipmakers from gaining access to advanced semiconductor equipment. Against this backdrop, market expectations for a comprehensive trade deal remain subdued.
“President Xi Jinping and Trump’s meeting will likely focus narrowly on trade and export controls,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report, highlighting soybeans, energy, airplanes, rare earths and semiconductors as potential focal points. “China may agree to buy more U.S. farm goods, energy and manufactured products in exchange for reduced tech restrictions and slightly lower tariffs,” they added, as reported by the South China Morning Post.
