Germans have emerged as some of Europe’s most hawkish voters on China, more likely to consider Beijing as a rival or an adversary than in any other major EU country, a new survey has shown. Published amid a bout of soul-searching in Berlin over whether to back a tougher approach towards China on trade, the findings suggest that the country’s citizens might not be opposed to such a shift. A combined 49% of German people polled considered China to be primarily a rival or an adversary, ahead of the second of the 13 countries polled – 43% in France, a long-time supporter of a more interventionist EU trade policy. Just 38% of Germans see China in positive terms, either as a partner or ally. By contrast, 65% of Spaniards and 62% of Bulgarians view Beijing in positive terms.
Germany is by far China’s biggest trade and investment partner in Europe. For decades, a symbiosis between the two economies helped deliver mutual industrial success. But Germany is enduring a broad-based manufacturing slowdown, with economists suggesting that China’s industrial rise is a major contributing factor. “The China shock has hit Germany particularly hard: its manufacturing sector lost around 420,000 jobs between 2019 and 2025 and it continues to shed 10,000 jobs each month,” according to the report by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank. “The car industry is paying the highest costs, being squeezed out of a market increasingly dominated by Chinese manufacturers at home and abroad.” The German government has thus far been reluctant to back new measures. In 2024, it was a notable holdout as the EU’s 27 member states voted on whether to slap anti-subsidy duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has hinted in recent weeks that something may have shifted, although his approach has been inconsistent. Within a three-month period from March, he called variously for a free-trade agreement with China, then a Plaza Accord-style agreement to deal with what he described as an “undervalued” Chinese yuan. It is understood that his coalition government is divided on how to move on China policy, with Economy Minister Katherina Reiche the most reluctant cabinet member when it comes to taking action against what is described as a “China shock 2.0”. Parties considered to be extreme – the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left group – are noticeably more inclined to see China as a necessary partner. The AfD feels most positively towards China. Some 45% say China is a necessary partner, 5% an ally, while 31% see it as a rival and 8% as an adversary.
The survey is the latest signal that something may be changing in Sino-German relations. On a call with investors last month, the CEO of Volkswagen urged the European Commission to put tariffs on Chinese-made plug-in hybrid EVs and praised the EV duties that he had so vociferously opposed in 2024. “It was the first time that the head of one of Germany’s big three carmakers had called publicly for trade defense measures against China,” wrote Noah Barkin, an expert in German China policy at Rhodium Group, the South China Morning Post reports.
