China’s largest trade expo – the 133rd China Import and Export Fair or Canton trade fair – will run from April 15 to May 5 in Guangzhou. But analysts are warning of a “severe and complicated” foreign environment, and dropping overseas orders. Declining commodities exports, which contributed around one fifth of China’s economic growth in each of the past three years, have already forced policymakers to offer more help via improved customs procedures, logistics and funding, while cementing ties with developed countries and emerging markets. China’s exports are expected to have fallen again in March, with the data set to be released this week, following a 6.8% fall in combined figures for January and February. Exporters registering for the spring session of the Canton Fair said the fall in overseas demand and orders represents a major challenge, according to an online survey of 20,000 firms conducted by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). “We are negotiating more free trade agreements. Also, the faster growth of cross-border e-commerce and digitalization of trade processes have provided us new competitive edges,” said Vice Trade Minister Wang Shouwen. The Canton Fair is expected to attract 34,000 exhibitors, including U.S. multinational retail giant Walmart, while more will join virtually.
China has not set a trade target for 2023, but is focused on stabilizing and optimizing trade structures. U.S.-bound shipments fell more than those to other countries amid bilateral tensions, dropping by 14.2% in January and 21.8% in February. The U.S. is now China’s third-largest export destination in value terms after ASEAN and the EU.
The new export order subindex within China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) also fell to 50.4 in March from 52.4 a month earlier. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has estimated that global trade in goods will increase by around 1% in terms of value in the first quarter of 2023, compared to a 2.4% rise a year earlier. However, it warned that the full-year outlook remains uncertain amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, high commodity prices and the risky combination of high interest rates and public debt, the South China Morning Post reports.
